該評論認為：一、亞太地區(qū)正出現(xiàn)兩個獨立的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，分別是美國推動的TPP和中國推動的RCEP，而RCEP的開放性不如TPP；二、中國如果不加入TPP，到2025年每年將損失460億美元；中國加入TPP，中國將獲利8000億美元，而美國將獲利3300億美元。因此中國加入TPP是對中美是雙贏。¹³

該評論表示，中國只有在開放投資市場、國企和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)政策等方面讓步，才能加入TPP；其建議中美首先簽訂BIT，為中國加入TPP鋪路；在此基礎(chǔ)上，中美致力于推動亞太自貿(mào)區(qū)(FTAAP)，或啟動WTO新一輪談判。¹⁴

TPP前景尚多變數(shù)

美國對TPP的政策綜合了多重考慮。美國視TPP攸關(guān)美國在亞太乃至全球的霸權(quán)，與美國“轉(zhuǎn)向亞太”的政策有密切聯(lián)系；美國擔心TPP升級成地緣政治工具，引發(fā)中美直接對抗，增加美國在亞太的壓力；美國試圖以TPP為籌碼，要求中國在BIT上讓步，接受TPP的標準；美國希望未來以TPP為藍本，主導(dǎo)新一輪世界貿(mào)易規(guī)則談判，繼續(xù)保持有利于美國的國際經(jīng)濟秩序。

總之，TPP延續(xù)了美國戰(zhàn)后的基本外交政策，即促進并鞏固美國的全球經(jīng)濟霸權(quán)；同時，TPP也體現(xiàn)了美國90年代以來“接觸+遏制”的對華政策思路。

不過，TPP也面臨很大挑戰(zhàn)，前景并不明朗。在美國兩黨內(nèi)部，對TPP協(xié)定中有關(guān)匯率操控、投資者-國家爭端解決機制(ISDS)、汽車零部件原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則等條款，至今各種反對聲音不斷；在美國民眾中，經(jīng)濟不景氣刺激了保護主義，對TPP帶來失業(yè)的擔心上升。因此，美國國會批準TPP的前景并不明朗。

在國際上，TPP在經(jīng)濟上缺乏基礎(chǔ)，不適應(yīng)全球經(jīng)濟趨勢，特別是新興經(jīng)濟體的興起；在亞洲區(qū)域，韓國、日本等重要經(jīng)濟體在安全上與美國合作，但在經(jīng)濟上與中國聯(lián)系日益密切，對TPP不免有雞肋之感；TPP也不符合新興經(jīng)濟體的利益和訴求，印度、巴西對此反應(yīng)冷淡。

相比之下，中國、印度、印尼、日本、韓國等參加的RCEP從2013年談判啟動以來進展順利，更大范圍的FTAAP也已在2014年啟動，向亞太經(jīng)濟體提供了TPP之外的更多選項。

TPP是亞太一體化的路徑之一，對中國也有借鑒的價值。隨著中國經(jīng)濟“走出去”，中國已成為區(qū)域一體化的重要推動者，缺乏中國參與的一體化在影響力上將大打折扣。區(qū)域一體化有利于提升中國經(jīng)濟水平，改善區(qū)域經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)和治理模式。隨著中國經(jīng)濟啟動供給側(cè)改革，進入產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和價值鏈提升階段，TPP的相關(guān)規(guī)則和條款上也越來越值得借鑒。

注釋：

1.Edward Alden Monday, “The TPP Is the Last, Best Opportunity for New Global Trade Rules”, The Council on Foreign Relations, Dec. 7, 2015, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/17373/the-tpp-is-the-last-best-opportunity-for-new-global-trade-rules.

2.Murray Hiebert, Ernest Z. Bower, Matthew P. Goodman, Scott Miller, “How Important is TPP to Our Asia Policy?”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, NOV 13, 2013, http://csis.org/publication/how-important-tpp-our-asia-policy.

3.Scott Miller, Paul Nadeau, “TPP Is More than a Trade Agreement”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, JAN 31, 2014, http://csis.org/publication/tpp-more-trade-agreement.

4.Mireya Solís, “Japan’s Big Bet on the Trans-Pacific Partnership: The TPP Nations Should Reciprocate”, The Brookings Institution, March 25, 2013,

5.http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/25-transpacific-partnership-solis.

6.Jessica J. Lee, “Seoul rethinks TPP”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, OCT 21, 2015, http://csis.org/publication/pacnet-70-seoul-rethinks-tpp.

7.Jessica J. Lee, “Seoul rethinks TPP”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, OCT 21, 2015, http://csis.org/publication/pacnet-70-seoul-rethinks-tpp.

8.Mireya Solís, “The geopolitical importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: At stake, a liberal economic order”, The Brookings Institution, March 13, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/03/13-geopolitical-importance-transpacific-partnership.

9.Mireya Solís, “TPP: The end of the beginning”, The Brookings Institution, October 5, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/10/05-transpacific-partnership-agreement-solis.

10.Mireya Solís, “TPP: The end of the beginning”, The Brookings Institution, October 5, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/10/05-transpacific-partnership-agreement-solis.

11.Patrick O’Connor, “The Trans-Pacific Partnership: a trade agreement of inclusion, not containment”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, JAN 6, 2016, http://csis.org/publication/pacnet-2-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-agreement-inclusion-not-containment.

12.Michael Froman, “The U.S. Trade Agenda and the Trans-Pacific Partnership”, The Council on Foreign Relations, OCT 15, 2015, http://www.cfr.org/trade/us-trade-agenda-trans-pacific-partnership/p37117.

13.Joshua P. Meltzer, “Why China should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership”, The Brookings Institution, September 21, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/09/21-us-china-economic-integration-tpp-meltzer.

14.Joshua P. Meltzer, “Why China should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership”, The Brookings Institution, September 21, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/09/21-us-china-economic-integration-tpp-meltzer.

15.Joshua P. Meltzer, “Why China should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership”, The Brookings Institution, September 21, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/09/21-us-china-economic-integration-tpp-meltzer.

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